Tesla Stock: Q2 Deliveries Below Estimates After Shanghai Production Woes

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Tesla (TSLA) delivered 254,695 vehicles in the second quarter, below estimates for 264,000. Covid lockdowns and restrictions significantly reduced Shanghai plant production for much of the quarter. CEO Elon Musk has also cited supply-chain woes for limiting output elsewhere. Tesla stock rose Friday.




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Wall Street had revised down estimates throughout the quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet on average expect Tesla to deliver 264,000 vehicles in Q2, with forecasts ranging from Deutsche Bank’s 245,000 and Wedbush’s 250,000 to a high of 272,000.

Tesla delivered 242,169 Model 3/Y vehicles and 16,411 Model S/X vehicles. It also said it produced 258,580 vehicles. Last year, Tesla delivered 201,250 units in Q2. In Q1 2022, the company delivered 310,048 units.

The EV maker opened its Austin, Texas, factory in April, right after launching production at its Berlin plant in late March. Tesla had expected a slow ramp-up in production, with the Berlin facility in particular not entirely finished. But even so, output has been light.

CEO Elon Musk recently said in a recently released video interview with Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley on May 31 that the two new factories were losing billions of dollars due to battery shortages and supply disruptions from China.

Musk also said that Tesla has struggled to ramp up production in Austin of Model Y SUVs that use its new 4680 cells and structurally integrated battery pack. It has instead had to pivot to using older 2170 cells to keep pushing out cars.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported Tuesday Tesla laid off hundreds of Autopilot employees. The report said 200 of the team’s 350 workers were let go. The layoffs are the latest in a series of cuts to the company’s salaried workforce, which Musk previously announced.

Shanghai Factory Reboot Planned

Tesla reported plans for new Shanghai production shutdowns in July, but these would be planned upgrades. The aim is to substantially increase production capacity to 22,000 vehicles per week.

The Shanghai factory has been producing 17,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles each week since mid June, Reuters reported.

“Our constraints are much more in raw materials and being able to scale up production,” Musk said at the Qatar Economic Forum organized by Bloomberg last week.

Various reports say Tesla Shanghai will either shut down entirely for two weeks or will shut down the Model Y and Model 3 production lines in turn.

Tesla customers are waiting longer to get their vehicles. Made-in-Germany Model Ys were expected to deliver at the end of June, but Tesla’s German website now says to expect delivery between October and December.

Low Berlin plant output and limited Shanghai exports to Europe exacerbated wait times.

For buyers in China, the wait time for made-in-China cars is between 10 and 24 weeks, according to Reuters.

In the U.S., Model 3 estimated delivery times range from September to December. Model S deliveries are expected between November 2022 and February 2023. Meanwhile, Model X and Y vehicles won’t be available until well into 2023.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock rose 1.2% to 681.79 on the stock market today, ending four days in a row of losses. Shares still fell 7.5% for the week.

TSLA stock is still trading below its slumping 50-day line, according to MarketSmith chart analysis. Shares are 45% below its 52-week high of 1,243.49.

Its relative strength line has declined over the last several months and has been trending sideways in recent days. Tesla’s RS Rating is 33 out of a best-possible 99. Its EPS Rating is 80.


EV Giant Breaks Out As It Seizes Tesla’s Crown


Other EV Stocks

Among other U.S.-based EV makers, Rivian (RIVN) was down 0.2% on Friday, while Lucid (LCID) gave up 1%.  Among American carmakers making big investments in EVs, General Motors (GM) added 1.4%, while Ford (F) gained 1.7%.

GM sold 582,401 vehicles in Q2, down 15%, but topping estimates for 575,911. EV sales totaled 7,300 units.

U.S.-listed shares of German automaker Volkswagen (VWAGY) fell 0.4%.

Tesla’s China-based rival BYD (BYDDF) was down 1%, but still in buy range. Nio (NIO) was down 1.5%, Li Auto (LI) declined 1.6%. Xpeng (XPEV) dropped 4.6%.

The Chinese EV startups reported Q2 deliveries on Friday. Nio sold 25,059 EVs in Q2, a 14% year-over-year increase. Xpeng sold 34,422 EVs in Q2, nearly doubling from the same quarter last year. And Li Auto sold 28,687 EVs in Q2, up 63% from the year-ago period. BYD is expected to report in the coming days.

MarketWatch reported that Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh cut price targets for Tesla, Nio and Rivian, citing lingering effects of supply constraints and Covid-related shutdowns in China.

Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.

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