Our intention in the series ‘The writing on the wall’ is to provide insights from analysts in Europe’s east into the political situation in their countries, over a year into Russia’s attack on Ukraine. So far, we have covered Albania, Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Moldova, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine.
In the post-Soviet states of Armenia, Georgia and Moldova, contributors describe an existential crisis of democracy as geopolitics impacts domestically. Across the Balkans and central eastern Europe, it is more accurate to talk of an omnipresent risk of democratic erosion, emanating largely but not solely from within. In Ukraine itself, the challenge is to defend democratic standards amidst martial law.
However, we want to avoid declinism. It needs emphasising that where state structures fail to serve the common good, civil society often fills the gap. A good example is the municipalist movement Zagreb je NAŠ! in the Croatian capital, which is spreading out across the country. Another is the housing justice movement in Budapest, which is keeping alive Hungary’s tradition of progressive local government, as organiser Éva Tessza Udvarhelyi writes.
Ecological movements are another source of encouragement. The success of the protests against environmental degradation in Jadar, Serbia and in Kalivaç, Albania shows the democratic potential of green politics in south-east Europe, reports journalist Raluca Beslia. Particularly in Serbia, a genuine opposition rooted in political ecology appears to be forming.
But popular anti-democratic movements are emerging too. A year before Romania’s super-election year, the new nationalists are making significant headway. Analyst Madalina Voinea traces the trajectory of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians from an anti-vax protest party to pro-Russian force. What Vionea describes as ‘state passivity’ also afflicts Albania. Here, reforms that would bring the country further towards EU accession remain hampered by corruption and lack of political will, writes journalist Ina Allkanjari.
All these developments of course impact not only domestically but also at the European level. The EP elections in 2024 will reflect the new conjuncture. And the EU enlargement has again become a top priority as Russia’s war forces the bloc to think strategically like never before.
